Days of the Black Swan


Ludic Fallacy Wiki
• It is impossible to be in possession of all the information.
• Very small unknown variations in the data could have a huge impact.
• Theories/models based on empirical data are flawed, as events that have not taken place before cannot be accounted for.

The Financial Meltdown: This Time Is Different Global Research
"The (economy's) primary functions are agriculture, manufacture, and transportation. Community life is impossible without them. They hold the world together....The great delusion is that one may change the foundation. The foundations of society are the men and means to grow things, to make things, and to carry things."

Real enterprise producing value. Tangible products. Not casino capitalism. Computerized gambling. The illusion of wealth. Disappearing once liquidity dries up. Or even now when it's abundant. With a keyboard click, or when investors fear an approaching economic storm.

"Neither the Treasury nor Congress is helping to resolve this problem." Newly issued debt won't re-inflate markets or stabilize the economy. Just the opposite. "As debt deflation eats into the domestic market for goods and services, corporate sales and earnings will shrink," and so will market valuations. The end result will be "the very bankruptcy that the bailout was supposed to prevent."

That prospect is nightmarish so here we are. America's economy is eroding. Government and Wall Street are orchestrating it. Maybe even willfully, and here's the legacy they're leaving. The nation "passing from democracy to oligarchy (and steering it is) a bipartisan financial kleptocracy" chuckling all the way to their offshore tax havens.


Fed Attempting To Prevent "Great Depression II" The Market Oracle
Here is the deal in even simpler terms. In order to prevent the "Great Depression II", the Fed and the Treasury have embarked on a series of measures similar in nature to those that caused the great depression.

The root cause of the great depression was the unsound lending patterns leading up to it. Those same unsound lending practices, now carried to the very limits of legality via Bernanke's alphabet soup of facilities, cannot possibly be the cure.


Another turning point, a fork stuck in the road
Time grabs you by the wrist, directs you where to go
So make the best of this test, and don't ask why
It's not a question, but a lesson learned in time

It's something unpredictable, but in the end it's right.
I hope you had the time of your life.